Titanium Nqe Lub Cuaj Hli 2026 Hloov Kho: Peak Season Falters Raws li daim txhuam cev tawg hauv pem teb

Tuam Tshoj "Golden Cuaj hlis" tau ua tsis tiav. Ob lub lis piam dhau los, kev pom zoo ntawm kev lag luam tau taw qhia rau siab -purity aerospace daim txhuam cev rov qab mus rau ¥ 48,000-50,000 / ton li Q3 aviation xa khoom nce siab. Hloov chaw, thawj lub lim tiam ntawm lub Cuaj Hli tau xa tawm qhov tsis sib xws: daim txhuam cev titanium Qib 0# tsoo hauv qab ¥ 45,000 / tuj pem teb kev puas siab puas ntsws rau ¥ 44,000–45,000 / ton- nws qib qis tshaj ntawm 2026-tom qab cov neeg tsim khoom tau cog lus tias yuav cov khoom siv tsis tu ncua ntawm cov khoom siv tsis tu ncua tsuas yog -hauv- sijhawm yuav khoom. Tab sis qhov poob tsis yog tag nrho zaj dab neeg. TC4 aerospace alloy ingots tuav ruaj khov ntawm ¥ 64,000–66,000 / tuj, naval thiab marine- qib titanium raj cov neeg tsim khoom qhia cov ntawv xaj tau sau los ntawm thawj ib nrab xyoo 2027, thiab 3D- luam ntawv kheej kheej titanium hmoov tseem nyob hauv 5 kg / 0 ¥ Kev ua lag luam tau faib ua ob qhov nrawm-thiab qhov kev sib cais tam sim no yog qhov tseeb tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau Q4 kev txiav txim siab nrhiav.

Muab tso ua ke los ntawm SMM qhov tseeb titanium tshuaj xyuas txhua lub lim tiam, Mysteel kev soj ntsuam. Nco ntsoov cov kab lus qhia: thawj zaug txij thaum Lub Xya Hli, pej xeem- cov nqi qis dua thaum lub siab - cov saw hlau kawg tuav.

Cov peev txheej: SMM Titanium Txhua Lub Limtiam Ntsuam Xyuas (Lub Cuaj Hli 3–5), Mysteel kev ntsuas txhua hnub (September 1–4), Taizhijia Baoji cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam, Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam.

Source: Mysteel, SMM qhov nruab nrab txhua hli. Cov kab dashed qhia qhov kev pom zoo aerospace-sponge forecast tshaj tawm thaum kawg-Lub Yim Hli; cov kab khov kho qhia tias qhov tshwm sim tiag tiag.

Daim duab saum toj no yog ib qho kev kuaj xyuas qhov tseeb tsim nyog ncua rau. Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli, qhov kev pom zoo xav tias yuav tsum muaj aerospace-qib 0# daim txhuam cev kom nce mus txog ¥ 48,000–50,000/ton hauv lub Cuaj Hli. Thawj lub lim tiam ntawm lub hli xa ¥ 44,500 / ton ntawm qhov nruab nrab- ib qho tshiab 2026 qis, thiab 4-8% plam tawm tsam qhov kev kwv yees. Qhov laj thawj tsis yog qhov xav tau aerospace ploj; nws yog tias pej xeem- qib tsis muaj zog tam sim no ntau dua lub dav hlau rub hauv lub lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm daim txhuam cev. TC4 alloy thiab TA1 ingots - qhov twg aerospace thiab tiv thaiv xav tau concentrates - tuav tag nrho.

¥ 45,000 / ton yog ntau tshaj ib puag ncig tus lej- nws yog kev lag luam txoj kab kev tiv thaiv kev puas siab puas ntsws, kwv yees tus nqi sib tw rau cov neeg tsim khoom siv sponge tseem ceeb. Nws kev ua txhaum cai hauv thawj lub lim tiam ntawm lub Cuaj Hli tau nqis los rau peb qhov sib xyaw ua ke:

Kev cog lus txiav txiav tsis tau tshwm sim. Ntau tus neeg tsim daim txhuam cev tau qhia txog kev txo qis hauv lub Xya Hli thiab Lub Yim Hli. Tsis muaj khoom xa tuaj. Nrog rau xyoo 2021-2025 cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kwv yees li 19% txhua xyoo thiab cov neeg tuaj tshiab tseem muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm rau xyoo no, kev lag luam kev lag luam tau nyob siab - thiab cov khoom muag khaws cia hauv tsev.

Lub caij siab kawg tsis tshwm sim.Tshuaj, txheej, kev tsim kho, thiab cov neeg siv khoom-sector buyers-qhov kev thov hauv paus rau pej xeem titanium- nkag mus rau lub Cuaj Hli tseem tab tom yuav nruj me ntsis kom xav tau. Tsis muaj concentrated restocking materialized, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom uas tau sim cov kev muab siab dua pom qhov tsis lees txais los ntawm cov neeg siv kawg.

Kev sib tw nqi rau ntim.Nrog cov khoom lag luam sib sau, cov lus hais tau xoob dua nyob rau lub Yim Hli lig thiab cov neeg yuav khoom tau thawb rau kev pom zoo hauv qhov chaw sib tham. Qhov sib kis ntawm cov nqi teev npe thiab cov nqi lag luam tiag tau nthuav dav -lwm classic lig- theem qis qis.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam tam sim no pom cov sponge tseem ceeb hauv qab hauv ¥ 43,000–45,000 / tuj ntau nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, nrog rau qhov inflection - yog tias nws los txog - nyob ntawm cov dej ntws qis uas feem ntau pib nruab nrab - txog - lub Cuaj Hli.

Qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj plaws ntawm kev ua lag luam tam sim no tsis yog tus nqi poob nws tus kheej tab sis nqaim npaum li cas. Taug kev ib kauj ruam nce tus nqi saw ntawm pej xeem sponge thiab daim duab inverts:

Naval thiab marine- qib titanium raj yog qhov kub tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam. Kev txiav txim rau TC4 titanium raj rau marine engineering daim ntawv thov tau nce 15% xyoo no, thiab ntau tus neeg tsim khoom qhia txog naval shipbuilding titanium raj xaj cov phau ntawv sau los ntawm thawj ib nrab xyoo 2027- ntawm tus nqi siab, tsis muaj cov khoom muag-clearing siab. Seamless raj quotes tuav ntawm 120-125 RMB / kg thaum pej xeem welded raj zaum ntawm 105-110 RMB / kg.

3D- luam ntawv titanium hmoov yog nyob rau hauv cov qauv tsis txaus.Spherical Ti hmoov rau kev tsim khoom lag luam ntxiv ntawm ¥ 350-400 / kg nrog cov khoom nruj; aerospace- qib hmoov tuav ntawm ¥450,000–460,000/ton. Kev thov kev loj hlob hauv ntu no yog kwv yees tsis pub tsawg dua 30% txhua xyoo rau peb xyoos tom ntej.

Nyias-gauge thiab aerospace phaj zoo dua cov phaj tuab tuab. Nyias titanium phaj, ultra- nyias strip, thiab aerospace- ntawv pov thawj daim ntawv pov thawj muaj kev noj qab nyob zoo, thaum tuab pej xeem phaj raug kaw nyob rau hauv nqe kev tsov kev rog- qis- kawg / siab- kawg ciam teb nyob rau hauv cov khoom titanium yeej tsis tau sharper.

Lub peev xwm aerospace tshiab tseem tuaj txog. A Baoji-raws li aerospace- qib titanium nqus melting qhov kev hloov kho tshiab tau dhau los tshuaj xyuas qhov ua tau nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli thaum ntxov, qhia meej meej rau kev lag luam "qis- qhov kawg nyiaj seem, siab- kawg tsis txaus" cov qauv tsis sib xws.

Thaum tus nqi sponge poob qis, cov saw txuas txuas ntxiv tau xa cov sib xyaw ua ke - mus rau - txhawb nqa cov cim uas tseem ceeb rau txhua tus qauv ua piv txwv ntxiv downside:

Titanium tetrachloride yog nruj thiab ruaj khov ntawm ¥ 5,800-6,000 / t. TiCl₄yog cov khoom noj ncaj qha rau daim txhuam cev txo qis. Nrog rau kev txwv tsis pub khoom noj thiab cov neeg tsim khoom hais kom ruaj khov, cov nqi sib txawv hauv pem teb nyob rau hauv daim txhuam cev ntau lawm yog nce, tsis poob - uas mechanically txwv deb npaum li cas daim txhuam cev tuaj yeem poob.

Concentrate mov yog nruj ntawm cov npoo.Xinjiang mines tseem nyob rau hauv kev txiav ntau lawm, Panzhihua majors yog tswj cov ntim los kos cov khoom muag, thiab cov chaw nres nkoj txawv teb chaws, thaum txaus, fim tus nqi chaos ntau dua li kev txo qis qis. Panxi concentrate index tuav ntawm 1,261.25 mus txog rau lub lim tiam.

Cov khoom noj khoom haus thoob ntiaj teb muaj kev cuam tshuam.Rio Tinto's QMM kev ua haujlwm hauv Madagascar-tsim peev xwm 750,000 t / xyoo ntawm titanium feedstock- raug tshem tawm mining thaum Lub Yim Hli 27 tom qab rov ua txoj kev thaiv, tsis muaj hnub rov pib dua. Hauv tebchaws Australia, PTR Minerals tau tshaj tawm cov kev tshawb fawb pib mining zoo heev ntawm nws qhov tso nyiaj Rosewood (17% hnyav- qib miner ntawm lub ntiaj teb siab tshaj). Ze ntawm - lub sij hawm muab khoom txaus ntshai; cov khoom tshiab yog xyoo tam sim no.

High-titanium slag producers yog poob- ua. 90-qib slag kev sib tw tau nyob ntawm ¥ 5,200–5,400 / t, txav qis dua, nrog Sichuan thiab Liaoning smelters khiav ntawm tus nqi txo vim tus nqi-tus nqi inversion ua rau kev tsim khoom tsis zoo. Slag mov contraction pub rov qab mus rau TiCl nruj dua₄thiab sponge mov nrog ib tug lag.

Kev sib xyaw ua ke -TiCl₄ruaj khov, slag producers curtailing, concentrate mines withholding-yog vim li cas feem ntau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam nyeem qhov tam sim no so hauv qab 45,000 raws li ib tug downing txav es tsis yog pib ntawm ib tug tshiab ceg down.

Lub Xya Hli cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai (tso tawm lig Lub Yim Hli) lees paub cov duab xa tawm uas peb tau taug qab txhua xyoo: Tuam Tshoj tau xa tawm 572.4 tons ntawm daim txhuam cev titanium thaum Lub Xya Hli - nqis 37.1% lub hli- ntawm - hli, tab sis nce 33.0% xyoo- ntawm - xyoo. Kev xa tawm thaum Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Xya Hli tau nce mus txog 4,423 tons, nce 9.1% ntawm lub xyoo, thaum cov khoom xa tawm tau poob rau ze rau - tsis cuam tshuam. FOB 0# daim txhuam cev tam sim no nruab nrab yog $ 6,800 / t-tus nqi tseem ceeb tshaj cov lus hais hauv tsev- uas piav qhia tias vim li cas cov neeg tsim khoom tseem ceeb rau lub sijhawm ntev - cov ntawv cog lus xa tawm tshaj qhov luv nqi hauv tsev muag khoom.

Rau cov neeg yuav khoom thoob ntiaj teb, cov tswv yim nyeem: Suav cov xa tawm xa tawm tseem muaj kev ntseeg siab ntawm qib ntim, thiab FOB hwm txhais tau tias tus nqi qis hauv tsev tsis tau txhais mus rau cov khoom pheej yig dua. Yog tias koj yuav ntawm FOB cov nqe lus, hais tam sim no thaum lub teb chaws -FOB kev sib kis tseem dav; Yog hais tias lub lag luam hauv tsev restocks thaum lub Cuaj Hlis lig, uas kis tau compresses los ntawm hauv qab.

Peb lub hauv paus rooj plaub rau plaub lub lis piam tom ntej: lub hauv paus sponge hauv qab ntawm ¥ 43,000–45,000 / t; civil zeb khoom nyob tiaj tus thiab sib tham; TC4 thiab qib naval tuav ruaj nrog ncua sij hawm ua cov hmoov txhuas. Lub viav vias qhov tseem ceeb yog qhov nruab nrab - mus rau - lub Cuaj Hlis lig restocking kev txiav txim siab los ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom loj -plaub- ntxiv rau lub lim tiam ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog yog cov roj; pib restocking yuav ruaj tus nqi sai sai hauv pem teb.

Kev lag luam- qib buyers (chemical, marine civil, desalination, neeg siv khoom): lub qhov rais cia li txhim kho. Ob lub lis piam dhau los peb tau qhia hais txog cov nqi hauv pem teb; pem teb tau tawg tam sim no, thiab qhov chaw pom zoo tau dav dua. Rau Q4 ntim, qhov no yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws nqi ib puag ncig txij li xyoo 2024-kev sib tham ruaj khov thaum sau npe- rau-kev sib kis tau dav.

Aerospace thiab tiv thaiv- cov neeg yuav khoom nyob ib sab: Lub Cuaj Hli tus nqi rov qab tau lig, tab sis qhov kev thov tsis nyob rau hauv nqe lus nug - naval raj xaj khiav mus rau nruab nrab xyoo 2027, aerospace hmoov yog luv luv, thiab TC4 tuav nws qhov ntau thaum txhua yam poob. Xauv Q4 ntim tam sim no; lub siab kawg ntawm lub lag luam no tsis luv nqi.

Additive manufacturing buyers: spherical hmoov mov tseem nruj nrog 30% + txhua xyoo thov kev loj hlob. Yog tias koj lub xyoo 2027 tsim nyob ntawm cov hmoov, cia lub peev xwm ua ntej tshaj qhov koj xav tias koj xav tau.

Peb muab ntau yam ntawm titanium cov khoom tsim los rau thoob ntiaj teb cov qauv. Txhua yam khoom muaj nyob hauv Qib 1–4 (TA1–TA4) thiab Qib 5 (TC4 / Ti-6Al-4V).

Nqe koj Q4 ntim ze ntawm 2026 pem teb

Civil- qib titanium yog tus nqi zoo tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2024 thaum cov qib aerospace thiab naval nyob ruaj khov -peb tuav zeb- ntawv pov thawj cov khoom thoob plaws cov raj, phaj, tuav, xov hlau, thiab strips, nrog rau tag nrho kev xa tawm thiab CBAM cov ntaub ntawv txhawb nqa. Thov ib qho kev tsocai thiab tau txais cov lus teb hauv 24 teev.

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